How the pandemic reshaped the U.S. workplace, according to SIFMA economists

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association's December 2021 outlook report predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will exert long-term effects on the U.S. economy. According to the report’s authors, pandemic-related disruptions have left an indelible mark on the country's workforce, and certain sectors will likely never get back to their pre-pandemic levels.

Findings

• More than 70% of respondents predict the number of employees working in offices will never return to pre-pandemic levels. 
• Lack of child care; school closures; workers choosing to work from home; lingering health concerns; and fears of contracting the virus were identified as factors impeding any large-scale return to the workplace.
• Some 47% of respondents foresee an increase in the number of customers returning to high-density activities once vaccines are widely disseminated. Nevertheless, this number will be nowhere near pre-pandemic levels, in their view.
• Due to changes in consumer behavior and expectations, almost 90% of the participating economists foresee a long-term or permanent negative impact on the hotel business, and 83% expect the same for the airline industry.
• Some 43% see the continuance of COVID-19 safety measures as a hindrance to returning to normalcy.

Forecasts of macroeconomic trends

Supply chain pressures:

Stricter monetary policy:

Labor force contracting:

GDP growth:

Unemployment rates: